Market after election

Hello

Nifty has closed at 6303.75. A very good weekly close. Since long we were suggesting to keep a positive bias of course with a Stop Loss. Now we have come to a juncture where there is a slight dilemma in our mind. Now what ? what should we do ? which way to go ? long or short ?

Well, first part of our bullish view has been completed once Nifty closed above 6240 on weekly basis. Now as we have mentioned earlier, one more weekly close is required above 6240. Day before yesterday we had a huge gap up. But Nifty could not sustained the higher levels. But yesterday again it went up, showing the strength.

Apart from global queues, the domestic political scenario is also very important for us. Tomorrow, on Sunday, on 08-12-2013, we have the assembly election results. Since last four days exit polls were showing the results and suddenly sentiment changed and we had a gap up.

Now there are two scenarios are taking place in the market. 1) says all the winning factors are discounted. Market has done what it had to. Now the result won’t make much impact on the market move. The result will not be better than the impact we saw in the market. And 2) says this rally will continue. The first target is around 6450 / 6500 and then it will go on till 6800 to 7200. After that we have again biggest event of general election for 16^th Lok Sabha. The positive result according to market will take Nifty to 7300 and way above.

Well… lots and lots of discussions, comments, arguments & predictions are going on in all types of media.

What a normal person can do to trade? How can he take the decision? How can he trade and invest in such a situation?

The simple answer to this according to me is… follow the rules, technical studies with 100 % discipline. That is the key to success for a normal person to win in this market against a well organized team, big players & corporate.

Since long we were bullish. Technical view remains the same as of now. What will be the result, I do not know. Nobody knows. So prediction from that perspective is not my job and not my cup of tea. What we do, is analyze the market on technical grounds. Based on which we make decisions. The same study suggests that the close above 6240 of Nifty future, for consecutive 2 weeks will make the market very strong & that strength can lead the market for the higher levels. Of course we trade with a strict Stop Losses in place & with a military discipline. We have taken positions accordingly.